Opinion · Transition to Tomorrow

Ken Wong: Which Countries Are Leading The Charge on the Energy Transition?

October 8, 2024, 08:00
Author: Ken Wong
Ken WongHead of Asia Pacific, Infrastructure

Ken Wong, Head of Asia Pacific, Infrastructure, at EQT Partners, considers the countries that are forging ahead with the energy transition

Walk into an office building in Japan for the first time and you’ll be surprised at how warm it is. Japan has no shortage of air conditioning to cope with its hot and humid summers but thermostats in corporate and government buildings are, at least by Western standards, set rather high.

It’s a slightly sweaty reminder that Japan is incredibly conscious about its energy use. That was the case even before the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster knocked a large chunk of its electricity generation capacity off the grid in a single stroke, and led to the decommissioning of most of its nuclear power plants over safety concerns. There is a real sense of duty throughout Japan that energy must be preserved, and all the more so as the country transitions to renewables.

Countries across the Asia Pacific region are grappling with their own unique geographical, economic, and social circumstances to determine their best paths forward in the transition to net zero. But even as each nation charts its own course, the collective feeling in the region is one shared by Europe, North America, and most of the rest of the world: the transition has to happen sooner rather than later.

For developed countries, the focus is on transitioning from non-renewable to renewable energy generation. Australia, which has historically generated most of its energy from its vast coal resources, is transitioning to solar and wind.

Japan, for so long reliant on nuclear power, is moving to renewable sources such as solar and wind. But Japan, unlike Australia and its coal, has limited non-renewable energy resources to support power generation during its transition. Presently, Japan is a big importer of coal and liquified natural gas, so in the longer term is considering imports of “green” hydrogen — a fuel created using renewable energy — as an alternative.

For developing countries with growing populations — particularly those with fast-growing middle classes — the focus is on increasing baseline energy generation capacity while also embracing renewables. This is obviously a trickier proposition. It’s also one complicated by Western emissions targets, and perhaps a degree of resentment among developing countries that these targets were imposed after Western countries burned through cheap fossil fuels for decades, without limitation.

Even so, developing countries are often the ones leading the charge on the net zero transition. India is a great example.

By 2041, India needs to build additional electricity generation capacity equivalent to the 2021 capacity of the entire European Union if it is to meet the energy demand of its growing population, according to a report by the International Energy Agency. Even though India holds about 10 percent of the world’s coal reserves, there is huge ambition in the Modi government to meet this demand with renewables. His administration has set a target of generating 500 gigawatts of renewable electricity by 2030 and achieving net zero by 2070.

This ambition is reflected in favorable government policy towards new wind, solar and battery projects. Importantly, state-backed entities are providing investors with power purchase agreements of as long as 25 years, which is a much longer timeframe than in most markets. This pricing certainty means that investments in renewable energy generation are all but secure for a quarter of a century.

For these reasons, we see India as one of the most attractive countries for transition infrastructure investment in the Asia Pacific region. That’s why we invested in O2 Power, which develops utility-scale wind and solar projects across India. O2 Power has signed an operating capacity of over 5 gigawatts of renewable electricity — an enormous scale achieved in just over four years of ownership.

We place Australia a close second to India in terms of investment opportunities. Australia has huge potential for wind and solar as it transitions away from coal but again, the idiosyncrasies of the country define where the opportunity exists.

Australia’s population is concentrated in a vertical strip along its east coast and is served by an electricity grid built to support coal-fired power plants. Today, there are growing numbers of solar farms and rooftop installations along that same line. When the sun shines, a whole lot of electricity is generated all at once. The problem is, there isn’t the right grid infrastructure to move that electricity to where it’s needed, nor battery capacity to store it. Which, of course, creates opportunities to invest in these sectors.

We are also finding some highly attractive opportunities in South Korea, most interestingly in businesses that support the circular economy and generate energy from, rather than just dispose of, waste. This was the key theme behind our decision to enter into a definitive agreement to acquire KJ Environment, one of the leading waste treatment, energy-from-waste, and recycling platforms in the country. We see this as a platform to continue to drive real change in the way waste is dealt with.

I’ve talked about the unique situation of each country in Asia Pacific but there are some common regional themes. Importantly, a lot of energy infrastructure in the region is state-owned. This has allowed countries like China to transition enormous amounts of capacity to renewables simply by way of government directives.

Indeed, China has put more renewable capacity online in recent years than any other country in the world. The progress that China has been able to make in a relatively short period demonstrates the importance of clear, consistent policies around these topics. We think Australia in particular, and the countries I referenced earlier would be able to accelerate the energy transition even further with greater clarity from both sides of politics on how governments can better support and enable private investment into these areas.

And of course, opportunity exists for cooperation through trade. In the long term, perhaps a surplus of solar and wind energy in Australia could be used to create green hydrogen for export to Japan. It’s a fascinating thought for the region’s increasingly dynamic renewable energy market.

Author: Ken Wong
Ken WongHead of Asia Pacific, Infrastructure

Ken Wong joined EQT Partners in October 2018 and is the Head of Asia Pacific, Infrastructure. Prior to joining EQT, Ken worked at Affinity Equity Partners focusing on private equity investments in the technology, media, telecommunications and consumer sectors. Prior to Affinity, Ken worked at Macquarie Capital, based in Melbourne. Ken holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Honours) degree from The University of Melbourne.

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